Integrating Quantitative Precipitation and Hydrological Model using for Flood Forecasting of Keelung River

• Main Authors: Yi-Cheng Huang, 黃奕程
• Other Authors: Ray-shyan Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/qm2gxf

碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程學系 === 103 === In this study, single coupling atmospheric hydrological model system is employed to simulate the integrating quantitative precipitation of typhoon and plum rain. According to the simulation, it is helpful to realize the relation between the diversion in Yuan Shan Zi and the forecast of rain. Investigate the uncertainty of integrating quantitative precipitation in the water level simulation of river basin to reach the goal which is learn whether the water level will reach the requirement of diversion in Yuan Shan Zi or not before the heavy rain is coming. This study is expected to provide to manager as a foundation of the decision, and the related units can get response measures previously to decrease the damage from the disaster. In this study, the issues which are chosen are Su-La typhoon in 2012 and the plum rain in 2013. Su-La typhoon is chosen because its diversion in Yuan Shan Zi is the largest in the recode. The forecast of rain for 78 hours which is developed by Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute is employed in this study. It uses different physical parameters to develop 20 sets of forecast. To investigate the situation of diversion in Yuan Shan Zi and the range of the uncertainty in the forecast with different time step, the result of Su-La typhoon shows that the probability of diversion in Yuan Shan Zi tend to increase with the time getting close to the raining issue occur. The diversion in Yuan Shan Zi can be forecasted accurately for 17 hours prior than the peak. Every result which is not diversion in Yuan Shan Zi is ignored. The result of the average cumulative rainfall for 78 hours display that the result of the cumulative rainfall for 17 hours is best forecast. For specific set, the best forecast of the time peak and the water level are shown at 23 and 17 hours. The study can offer the simulation and estimate the information of diversion and peak within the credible range. It can provide the manager who wants to use the result of the integrating quantitative precipitation as IV forecast, and the staff in the Yuan Shan Zi diversion management center as a prior alert to save the time of operation and circular.