System Dynamics Modeling of Real Estate Investment：An Empirical Study of T-REITs

• Main Authors: Li-MinTai, 戴麗敏
• Other Authors: Victor-B. Kreng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/3getxz

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA) === 103 === Good monetary conditions and easing lending standards have supported the performance of real estate market since 2008. We expected the macroeconomic environment to continue to influence the direction of listed real estate market price and housing price. From past studies, we learned that several factors (i.e., interest rate of loans, intervention by government, etc.) could impact on housing price, but most of those studies do not literate the interrelations between determinants and T-REITs. This study selects Taiwan’s two stocks of Real Estate Investment Trusts as a research object and applies the system dynamics methodology to construct a housing price system to detect how urban housing price may change along with the T-REITs under the effects of external factors. The result of this study suggests the housing price in this low-interest rate environment, continue to look as attractive investment vehicles for investors compared to T-REITs. On the contrary, policy overhang is the launch in 2011 of a number of measures to cap the rally in housing prices, including luxury goods taxation, tightening mortgage policies, public traded housing price etc. These interventions by government might lead housing transaction volumes were low, however, no impact on housing price. We expect more policies targeting a more efficient and affordable housing price in the coming months. The other finding is that investors appear to be thinking that the changing environment in the government interference landscape could increase the attractiveness of T-REITs. We would like this model become a real estate investment decision support system of macroeconomic environment to improve investors’ decision qualities concerning finance, real investment needs, etc.