Combining Time Series and Bass Diffusion Models to Forecast the Sales of Innovative Product - A Case of Smartphone

• Main Authors: Shu-ChunChao, 趙淑君
• Other Authors: Victor Kreng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/z4t85d

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 工業與資訊管理學系 === 103 === In recent years, people care about the demand of product so much that companies must improve product quality and pursue innovation constantly to meet consumer’s demand. As a result, the product lifetime of mobile phones has been shortened. In order to make more profits, enterprises should arrange the production plan effectively and evaluate sales volume accurately. Therefore, it’s important that companies modify marketing strategies and manufacturing processes based on consumer behavior. The purpose of this research is to combine Bass diffusion model and ARIMA model to establish an innovation diffusion model which can be applied to modify the forecast the innovation products. This project will take the global sales of iPhone as research object. The researcher will able to forecasting sales volume accurately. After adding the concept of time series and concerning the auto-regressive among the quarters, the accuracy of predicted value would be better.