The Evolution of the Philippines' South China Sea Policy after Cold War

• Main Authors: HSIEH,JYH HAW, 謝智皓
• Other Authors: 郭武平
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/65082342747169584700

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 國家安全與大陸研究碩士在職專班 === 103 === Since the Mischief Reef dispute broke out between the Philippines and China in 1995, the relations between the two countries have been unstable when it comes to sovereignty issues over South China Sea. From the confrontation period of Fidel Valdes Ramos (1992~1998), the relaxation strategy of Joseoh Ejercito Estrada (1998~2001), the avoidance attitude of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (2001~2010), to the Law War Stage of Benigno S. Aquino III (2010~ ), now the China-Philippines relation has turned into an antagonistic one. The 4 Philippines presidents after the end of the cold war have roughly adopted hedging strategies in order to survive from the tug-of-war between China and America. The Philippines employs a strategy that combines bandwagoning and balancing, similar to ASEAN’s equilibrium strategy among big countries, drawing America and Japan over to its side and forcing mainland China to get involved. The Philippine national policy sticks to two principles: “Relying on America for Regional Security” and “Grasping China for Economic Development”. The policy unavoidably makes the country fall into the wrestling of “Geo-Politics” and “Geo-Economics.” As for China, it maintains the principle of fighting over core interests but will not break the relationship. Facing the various provocative actions of the Philippines, China adopts a tailored strategy with corresponding means and methods to handle the Philippines. Due to the weak military capabilities and the alliance relations with America, it is predictable that before Benigno S. Aquino III finish his term as the Philippines president, the country will continue to bark on South China Sea issues and try to contend with China by law so as to obtain more advantages in protecting its national interests. As for Aquino’s successor, predictably he/she will substantially repair the relations with China and regain pro-china policies.