| Summary: | 碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 觀光事業學系碩士在職專班 === 103 === There are more and more people going to the Yingge Ceramics Museum (YCM) for cultural and creative tourism. Since the museum is a non-profit governmental organization and no fee is needed for a visit, its resources and budget are often limited. The sustainable development for this museum might be blocked because of some possible influence factors in this highly uncertain environment.
The purpose for this study is to explore the possible influence factors in the future highly uncertain environment and to provide feasible directions for cultural and creative tourism to survive and thrive in these uncertain situations.
The research method for this study is scenario planning, which is combined with business ecosystem. In order to make the development of the study clear, Modified Delphi technique is added and a frame for the study is established. According to the study frame, Stanford Research Institute’s six steps for scenario planning is used, secondary material is collected, and three interviews are done. In the end, 27 possible influence factors are gained. Furthermore, 3 questionnaires are conducted via e-mail, with help from 20 Modified Delphi experts. 18 important influence factors are found on the basis of the statistics obtained from the returned questionnaires processed by Excel Software:
The top 5 key decision factors that influence the domestic cultural and creative tourism are:
1.personnel fostering,
2.government policies,
3.educational measures,
4. cultural measures, and
5.environmental measures.
The environment as a whole will influence potential investors’ willingness to invest in cultural and creative tourism; therefore, the involvement of government policies and resources is highly expected.
From the matrix of impact and uncertainty, we get the top 4 driving forces; they are:
1.R & D for culture and creativity,
2.experience economy,
3.the number of tourists visiting the museum, and
4.the annual exhibition and cultural and creative activities.
They can be condensed into 3 uncertain axis:
1.the ability to integrate technology, culture, and education,
2.the ability to integrate planning and service, and
3.the involvement of government.
Furthermore, the decision implications are analyzed and feasible strategies developed.
The 20 Modified Delphi experts make assessment on the highly-influential and highly- uncertain influence factors, and the top 10 factors are:
1.the number of tourists visiting the museum,
2.the annual exhibitions and cultural and creative activities,
3.the cultural and creative development,
4.the branding for Yingge ceramics,
5.the fostering for art and culture
6.the planning for trips
7.the integration with local cultural and creative industries,
8.low-carbon travel,
9.spatial planning, and
10.Information & digital network marketing.
These factors can be first considered when planning is being done for future environmental changes. Those factors not included on the top 10 list can turn into influence factor if factors on the top 10 list fail to solve problems.
The contribution of this study is to use scenario planning to plot for cultural and creative tourism. On the one hand, the experts can confirm what those possible future influence factors are; on the other hand, they can provide feasible directions and the execution timeline for the planner for Yingge Ceramics Musem’s cultural and creative tourism when forming strategies. When uncertain situations do happen in the future, plans basing on different scenarios can be used to make the museum’s cultural and creative tourism develop even better.
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