| Summary: | 碩士 === 銘傳大學 === 財務金融學系碩士在職專班 === 103 === Many factors will affect real estate prices. If we measure the prosperity of real estate by only one of indicators, then it seems to be not sufficient. Reviewing related literature, most scholars apply single one of indicators to measure the prosperity of real estate. Therefore,we use data of the Sinyi housing price index for Taiwan, Taipei, and New Taipei City and composite indicators of National Development Council (including Leading Indicators and Coincident Indicators) to examine the relationship between real estate prices and business cycle, and explore which one is a leading indicator. The empirical result of VAR models show that Leading Indicators lead the Sinyi housing price index for Taiwan, Taipei and New Taipei City. The Sinyi housing price index for Taiwan, Taipei and New Taipei City lead Coincident Indicators. Sinyi housing price index for Taipei leads Leading Indicators and Coincident Indicators. Then, selected as important components of business indicators, the export order index, M1b and stock index lead the Sinyi housing price index for Taiwan. It implies that we can use Leading Indicators to predict real estate prices.
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