Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company
碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 製造與管理外國學生碩士專班 === 103 === Forecasting is the process and technology of projecting the future based on the previous data, which may vary from very simple to complex or sophisticated methods depending on the requirements needed. For example, a company’s financial forecasts focus...
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ndltd-TW-103KUAS16210202019-05-15T21:51:48Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/vt629f Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company 應用灰色理論建立食品產業的預測模型-以越南 Hai Ha 公司的個案為例 Vu Hao Tinh 武好情 碩士 國立高雄應用科技大學 製造與管理外國學生碩士專班 103 Forecasting is the process and technology of projecting the future based on the previous data, which may vary from very simple to complex or sophisticated methods depending on the requirements needed. For example, a company’s financial forecasts focus on its future financial prospects derived from its historical data as well as the demand for capital necessary for the coming year. Similarly, a company also very emphasizes its sales. By the same token, it will pay attention to its historical sales records and come up with the projected forecasting that can be used as the sales goals and business operation basis. However, the forecasting cannot get a satisfactory result without a good forecasting method. Specific forecasting methods or techniques are also used which companies or industries own few data or lack enough parameters. Accordingly, in this study Grey system theory is employed to forecast the sales forecast where data are few and the behaviors of systems are unknown. Data used in this study are obtained from the annual financial statements of the Hai Ha confectionery company for the forecasting of net sales in the coming two years (i.e., 2014 and 2015). For the current research, in the first place the original predicted values of net sales is obtained individually by the GM(1,1) model, the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1) model. Secondly, three models are used to test the unknown behaviors of the sales forecast. The results of these models in terms of predicting net sales show that the forecasting accuracy of the DGM (2, 1) is higher than the GM (1, 1) model and the Verhulst model. Keywords: Grey System Theory, GM (1.1) Model, Verhuslt Model, DGM (2, 1) Model Lai Wang Wang 王來旺 2015 學位論文 ; thesis 46 en_US |
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碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 製造與管理外國學生碩士專班 === 103 === Forecasting is the process and technology of projecting the future based on the previous data, which may vary from very simple to complex or sophisticated methods depending on the requirements needed. For example, a company’s financial forecasts focus on its future financial prospects derived from its historical data as well as the demand for capital necessary for the coming year. Similarly, a company also very emphasizes its sales. By the same token, it will pay attention to its historical sales records and come up with the projected forecasting that can be used as the sales goals and business operation basis. However, the forecasting cannot get a satisfactory result without a good forecasting method. Specific forecasting methods or techniques are also used which companies or industries own few data or lack enough parameters.
Accordingly, in this study Grey system theory is employed to forecast the sales forecast where data are few and the behaviors of systems are unknown. Data used in this study are obtained from the annual financial statements of the Hai Ha confectionery company for the forecasting of net sales in the coming two years (i.e., 2014 and 2015). For the current research, in the first place the original predicted values of net sales is obtained individually by the GM(1,1) model, the Verhulst model and the DGM(2,1) model. Secondly, three models are used to test the unknown behaviors of the sales forecast. The results of these models in terms of predicting net sales show that the forecasting accuracy of the DGM (2, 1) is higher than the GM (1, 1) model and the Verhulst model.
Keywords: Grey System Theory, GM (1.1) Model, Verhuslt Model, DGM (2, 1) Model
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author2 |
Lai Wang Wang |
author_facet |
Lai Wang Wang Vu Hao Tinh 武好情 |
author |
Vu Hao Tinh 武好情 |
spellingShingle |
Vu Hao Tinh 武好情 Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company |
author_sort |
Vu Hao Tinh |
title |
Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company |
title_short |
Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company |
title_full |
Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company |
title_fullStr |
Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company |
title_full_unstemmed |
Applying Grey Theory to Building the Forecasting Model of Food Industry – A Case Study of Hai Ha Confectionary Company |
title_sort |
applying grey theory to building the forecasting model of food industry – a case study of hai ha confectionary company |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/vt629f |
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