| Summary: | 碩士 === 大葉大學 === 管理學院碩士在職專班 === 103 === This study aims to research before and after the USA implementing QE3, a dynamic analysis of interactive relationship on the total value of Tilapia products exported to the USA and the real exchange rate of the economic factors, the price of oil, American GDP, American inflation rate; the total value and the real exchange rate of machine tool products exported to the USA, American GDP, the industrial production of Taiwan, and CBOE S&P 500 volatility index. The associations were assessed using the Unit-Root Test, Vector Autoregression Model, Granger Causality Test, Co-integration Test and Error Correction Model to analyze monthly data from January 2004 to April 2014 and expected to find out interactive relationship among the economic factors of Tilapia products, machine tool products of Taiwan exported to the USA around the QE3 policy.
The results showed: First, view on Vector Autoregression Model: 1. The real exchange rate, American GDP and American inflation rate were the influence fators of the total value of Tilapia products exported to the USA. 2. The real exchange rate, American GDP,and the indurstial production of Taiwan were the influence factors of the total value of machine tool products exported to the USA.
Second, view on Granger Causality Test; 1. The real exchange rate, American GDP and American inflation rate were leading the total value of Tilapia products exported to the USA. 2. The industrial peoduction of Taiwan and the total value of machine tool products exported to the USA were two-way causality relationship; the real exchange rate, American GDP were leading the total value of machine tool products exported to the USA.
Third, there were five variables existed in long-term balanced realtionship in Co-integration Test. They were the total value of machine tool products(the whole stage), the real exchange rate, CBOE S&P 500 volatility index, and the total value of machine tool products(the earlier stage) and the real exchange rate, CBOE S&P 500 index; the total value of machine tool products(the later stage) and the industrial peoduction of Taiwan.
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