The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Triangular Trade: Evidence from Taiwan

• Main Authors: Chia-Ming Yang, 楊家明
• Other Authors: Jian-Fa Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/hu35er

碩士 === 朝陽科技大學 === 財務金融系 === 103 === This study is to explore a Vector Auto-regressive model to uncover how volatility of exchange rate has an impact on import and export in Taiwan. We employ Granger Causality test, Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition to investigate the relation among macroeconomic variables simultaneously. Our quarter samples are from 1989 to 2014 drawn from several statistical databases. Our empirical findings show the evidence that the impact of exchange rate volatility on the import and export could not confirm those in theoretical expectations. It could partially result from the specific economic and trade patterns with an export-oriented production and final goods relying on intermediate input. Accordingly, the appreciation of domestic currency might bring a negative impact on the import and its economic growth.