Study on the Impact of Temperature and Economic Climate on Energy Index and Water Index

• Main Authors: Zheng-Jie Liu, 劉政杰
• Other Authors: Wei-Shan Hu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/gsdd98

碩士 === 中原大學 === 企業管理研究所 === 103 === Recently, the global temperature continually breaks the record of average year high and day high. The examples are too numerous to enumerate. Many of the unfortunate incidents take place due to heat waves. We all know that the continuously high temperature cause the Ozone depletion. One critical reason is the exhaustion of the Greenhouse Gas, the discharging from economy activities makes the international attention. Recently, Taiwan is also facing against the crisis of water shortage, government took water-use restriction measures to bring people huge inconvenience. Heavily economy activities make the environment worse and worse than before. Consequently, the necessity and convenience of water arouse people’s deep attention on environmental consciousness. Based on the motivation above, this study attempts to examine the influence of temperature and business cycle on the energy index and water index. This investigation uses VAR, VECM, Impulse response function and Granger causality test to examine whether there is a long term casual and equilibrium relationship. The conclusion is summarized below: 1. The temperature does not have significant effect on the energy index and water index, which attributes to the nature of temperature. Although the effect of natural variability is wide-spread, its influence on capital market is not more than business cycle does. 2. The result of impulse response function shows that a shock of business cycle has the most significantly positive impact on business cycle itself in the first term. A shock of water index has also the most significant effect on water index itself in the first tem, then both the business cycle and water index converge rapidly. However, business cycle has a long-term’s positive and stable influence on the energy index. 3. The result of forecasting-error variance decomposition demonstrates that the most significantly explanatory power on the shock to business cycle is business cycle itself; while that on shocks to water index is water index itself. However, business cycle has no significant impact on water index. Meanwhile, the most significantly explanatory power on the shocks to energy index in the first term arises from business cycle (71.8%), and the second significantly explanatory power arises from the energy index itself (28.2%).