Applying Grey Theory with Two Parameter Exponential Smoothing to Forecast the Future of 4G Telecommunication

• Main Authors: Yu-Chih Huang, 黃郁智
• Other Authors: Cheng-Yuan Ku
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/fh9442

碩士 === 國立中正大學 === 資訊管理學系暨研究所 === 103 === 4G telecommunication industry has been operating for years in foreign countries, but in Taiwan it is an emerging industry in the beginning. And the people who demand for mobile network for data transmission are also growing. The main purpose of this study is to forecast the trend of 4G telecommunication industry in Taiwan. The 4G telecommunications of Taiwan began providing services in May 2014, and there are no related historical statistics. After collecting data for a year, in the limited amount of data, I decided to use the Grey Theory as the forecasting tool for this research. The GM (1,1) model is very famous in grey system theory, and it has successfully been widely applied in various research fields. The most important characteristic of GM (1,1) is that it features good forecasting results while the current data is insufficient in the related studies. During the research, I found that GM (1,1) model was not fully applicable to the data. In addition, we find the problem about data divergence of the forecast results. In order to solve this problem, I successfully combined the Holt’s two parameter exponential model and GM (1,1) model. Finally, I get the better accurate and significant achievements.