Combining AHP with Diffusion Model for Analyzing the Development of 4G Mobile Telecommunication Market

• Main Authors: Tzu-Chun Lin, 林子君
• Other Authors: FANG-MEI TSENG
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2015
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/twh85j

碩士 === 元智大學 === 經營管理碩士班(國際企業學程) === 103 === As the 3G mobile systems are continually evolving into 4G technologies, the system vendors and mobile operators put a lot of investment to build the new generation of mobile systems. Before investing new equipment or product, it is very important for investors to know what the potential market size is. Since the amount of investment is larger than other industries, it is crucial for mobile operators to gauge how the market will evolve to minimize risks of investment. In the field of demand forecasting, the Bass diffusion model (1996) is the most widely used. Later studies further on model adjustment and extension, the method correction of parameter evaluation, flexible diffusion model and model application to have better achievement on parameters evaluation and sales forecast. However, many studies are based on products with historical sales data, ignore the new product with no historical sales data. Therefore, this study chose 4G subscribers in USA, Japan and Korea as analogous products by expert’ interviews and correlation coefficient of 2G and 3G between Taiwan and these three countries. This study develops a new integrated measure by combining similarity analysis and AHP analysis to determine the weight sum of coefficient of diffusion model for Taiwan 4G. The results indicate that Bass model fit the 4G subscribers in USA, Japan and Korea well. In addition, the market condition in Japan and Korea are more similar to Taiwan. Eventually can obtain the information of initial stage, market potential size and related important key factors about 4G by means of the simulation analysis derived from above prediction model, then study the application on product development strategy. Expect also can conduce the operators have more explicit understanding and find the counterplot of product strategy.