The impact of economic uncertainty on fertility in developed countries

• Main Authors: Hsing-Chun Yeh, 葉倖君
• Other Authors: Teng-Yuan Hu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/15904427081558944479

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 產業經濟學系碩士班 === 102 === In this paper, we explore the relation between fertility and economic uncertainty by examing a panel of OECD 20 countries aggregate fertility and economic variables reflecting economic uncertainty from 1991 to 2012. First, we focus on static panel data analysis by using fixed-effects model and random-effects model to study how different the economic shocks may have affected fertility. The random-effects model is chosen according the Hausman test. Second, we estimate dynamic panel data of two-step GMM estimators from Arellano and Bond (1991) to investigate how different the lagged fertility rate and the economic conditions of lagged independent variables may have affected fertility decisions. By using these two methods, we find that the economic uncertainty variables including female unemployment rate and the periods of dotcom and finance crisis are associated with lower fertility. The estimates of coefficient of real per capita GDP growth rate are significantly negative in both models. In dynamic model, we find female participation rate and spending on family benefits have a significantly positive relationship with fertility in random-effects model. While female participation rate is still significantly positive, the estimates of coefficient of family benefits and public debt become insignificant. Overall, the findings from both models indicate that the impact of economic uncertainty on fertility rate is significantly negative in developed countries. Women seem to postpone or reduce childbearing in response to downturns. The negative impact is more significant in dynamic panel model. During the recession periods of dotcom and finance crisis, fertility rate decreases 0.02 and 0.03 children for the women aged from 15 to 49.