| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 美洲研究所碩士班 === 102 === This thesis proposes to analyze the important determinants of divorce ratio in the US over the period 2005-2012. Naturally one cannot divorce if one is not married. This means that probably the most important determinant of long term divorce ratio is the marriage ratio. It is well known that the marriage rate has been falling in the US for several decades. The marriage rate (say marriages per 1000 population) in the US peaked around the mid-1980s and has been falling steadily since that time. It is also true that the absolute number of marriages have been falling as well. This means that one would expect a falling divorce rate in the US over roughly the same period. Nevertheless, there have been significant fluctuations in the divorce rate around its declining trend. It is this fluctuation, as well as the declining trend which this thesis proposes to analyze.
Divorce is typically thought to be a social problem and something which should be minimized, although there is only a small role for government to play in forming policies that reduce divorce. While it is true that divorce may be nothing more than releasing individuals from poor choices made in getting married it seems clear that if children are involved there may be collateral effects of the divorce that are harmful to the children and in turn to society. There are numerous causes for families to break. Not all of these causes are economic in nature, although it is clear from past studies that economic factors do indeed play an important, if not central, role. Because of the highly detailed nature of the panel data set, it is possible to look at state and regional differences in divorce trends and fluctuations about the trend and attempt to correlate these with state and regional movements in per capita income, unemployment, etc. In addition, there are national trends in such things as geographic variations in religious faith, increased usage of birth control, and other social trends.
There is an alternative view of the economics of divorce that looks at the role played by complementary household production and household consumption. In the first case it may be easier and less costly to produce valuable services at home if two people work together in a dependable married manner. It is also possible that living apart in a state of divorce can be relatively more costly when one views such things as the purchase of durable goods like televisions, furniture, automobiles, etc. These needs of household production and consumption can be important factors in determining whether people get divorced. Naturally, the price of divorce (i.e. legal fees) can present a major barrier to divorce. Ease of divorce (such as so-called "no-fault divorce") can encourage a rise in the divorce rate.
This thesis proposes to unearth and examine, as much as the availability of data will allow, the various determinants of divorce to better ascertain which factors play the most important role and have the biggest impact on the divorce rates for the various states and regions of the US.
The importance of the marriage ratio in determining long run trends in the divorce ratio means that any further or deeper analysis of why people are choosing not to marry must be made to establish the true causes of the downward trend in divorce. An attempt will be made to try to include these factors into the model to see if both marriage and divorce can be simultaneously determined by a small set of stable and informative factors.
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