| Summary: | 博士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 農業經濟學研究所 === 102 === This thesis applied a partial equilibrium model and a general equilibrium model to conduct two cost-benefit analyses (CBA), one for the bioenergy policy and the other for the public health policy in Taiwan, respectively. The results can serve as empirical references for government policy decision making.
In the first CBA study, the seeds of Tung trees (Vernicia fordii) is used as raw material for biodiesel to alleviate fuel price increases while reducing greenhouse gas emissions simultaneously. The positive benefit of macroeconomics and microeconomics was generated by taking into account government subsidies on forestation in fallow cropland as supporting measures. The Input-output model reflects the flow of overall production, distribution, and usage across different sectors of the economy. Consequently, this case study simulated the direct and indirect influences on the domestic economy driven by Tung biodiesel industry. Furthermore, employed cost-benefit analysis to assess the economic feasibility of using domestically produced and imported Tung seeds as energy crops. The results indicated that: firstly, when considering costs of raw materials, the importation of Tung seeds for use as energy crops is cost-competitive, and is the most suitable program. Secondly, the environmental benefits were considered under the B2 policy (blend of 2% biodiesel and 98% diesel fuel) and the positive carbon sequestration brought by the programs of planting new Tung trees on fallow crop land. The net benefits of the domestically-produced Tung and the imported Tung seed scenarios were equivalent ($13 million). However, when bioenergy goals were expanded to B5 policy (blend of 5% biodiesel and 95% diesel fuel), the economic benefits of using domestically-produced Tung seeds as fuel sources increased to $196 million. Subsequently, the autonomy of renewable energy supply and the green output of agriculture will be enhanced.
The second CBA described how to incorporate the health factors into the economic impact assessment. The highly contagious strain of H1N1 has been spread rapidly around the world. H1N1 with weak toxicity causes illness and deaths which damaged the labor productivity and private consumption. Consequently, durations (six months) and epidemiology are major factors of the simulations. The Taiwan computable general equilibrium model (TAIGEM) was used to estimate the overall and sectoral economic impact of the pandemic with a database compiled from the 2004 Input-Output Table. This study also evaluates the cost-benefit of implementing the three interventions (Vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug), respectively. The simulation results indicate that if the pandemic is confined within the 50% attack rate and 1.3% fatality rate, then the impact on real GDP and labor demand is around -1.41% and -1.72%. Once the attack and fatality rate declines to 26% and 0.6% by introducing interventions, the real GDP and labor demand would contract by -0.55~-1.13% and -0.70~-1.41%. In the cost-benefit analysis, the net benefit of vaccination is 2~3 times greater than the other policies, being the most efficient policy.
|
|---|
