The Optimal Timing Decision of Movie Industry: A Forecast Model of Taipei City Area

• Main Authors: Zhe-Hua Nian, 粘哲華
• Other Authors: Chia-Wei Kuo
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/03731876634894073604

碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 商學研究所 === 102 === Watching movies is one of the most popular entertainments for the Taiwanese; it also produces a large amount of economic output. There are several sequential selling channels in the movie industry, which includes first run movie cinemas, second run movie cinemas and the DVD market. Movie distributers cooperate with channels and receive revenues according to different types of authorization contracts; meanwhile, they need to make the release timing decision for each channel. This study develops the movie distributers’ revenue models and uses collected data to realize relationships between those channels’ demand functions; and in the end, finds out the factors behind those relationships. This study found that the box-office in the Taipei Area fit the new product diffuse model whose innovation effect is larger than imitation effect. A dilemma appears for movie distributers when they make timing decisions. If they decide to enter the secondary market too fast, they will damage the sales from the first market. On the other hand, if they decide to enter the secondary market too late, they will lose potential demands there. In this study, actual box-office data between Feb., 2013 and Feb., 2014 are used in the revenue mode to find out which factors may affect the movie distributers as they decide the release timing for the movies. Conclusions can thus be reached that factors related to movie genres can effectively be used to explain how the movie distributers decide the release timing for the movies. There are three main factors. First, consumers of different movie genres have different demands to sonic and visual effects. Second, movies distributers tend to design different promotion strategies for different movie genres. Last, different movie genres can stir up different degrees of discussion, thus cause various levels of peer pressure.