| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 102 === The pace of regional development in East Asia has accelerated over the past few decades. In this trend of regional integration, the issues of ASEAN Plus One, ASEAN Plus Three, ASEAN plus six and the like cannot be overemphasized. Given that Taiwan''s main trade partners in recent years have become China and ASEAN, this study targets the free trade agreements signed by ASEAN and China as research subjects, and focuses on rules of origin used to determine the origin of goods. The trade gravity model proposed by Tinbergen(1962) and Poyhonen(1963) is applied in this study. The restrictiveness of rules of origin of different FTAs is estimated by the restrictive index constructed by Estevadeordal (2000). The index of automotive products rules of origin, the standard gravity model variables, cultural dummy variables and trade effects variables are combined in the empirical model to capture significant factors of the fluctuation in trade. By using panel data of east asian countries between year 2000-2011, we aspire to observe and analyze the automotive trade market. In addition, we will further explore the impact on trade flows of Taiwan by ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement.
The results of this study are as follows. (1) Since the levels of economic development of ASEAN members are tremendously different, the product list and the tariff reduction process in ACFTA are therefore complex and sophisticated. (2) The restrictiveness of rules of origin of automotive industry in ACFTA is comparatively moderate. (3) The negative effect of automotive industry rules of origin on value of export has diminished over time, proving that there was rules of origin learning effect in East Asia. (4) The automotive exports in East Asian countries increase significantly with ACFTA, AJCEP and AKFTA coming into effect. Also, the net trade effect of ACFTA is positive. (5) The net trade effect of ACFTA on Taiwan is significantly positive.
|
|---|
