| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 國際財務金融碩士在職專班 === 102 === This study discusses the interaction between national income, money supply,authorized area of the building license and the House price indexes. The impacts of the Luxury tax and the Actual Price Registration policies on housing prices are also examined. The data period is from January 2000 to December 2013, and we have 56 seasonal data samples totally. We use four models in the study: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), Granger Causality Test, Impulse Responses Function and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, and the empirical results are concluded as follows:
1. The effect of the implementation of the luxury tax and the actual price registration on the housing price.
The vector error correction model (VECM) shows that neither the luxury tax nor the actual price registration policy can restrain the housing price in terms of the transaction price. Regarding the trading volume, the luxury tax policy has a significant negative influence on Cathay Trading Volume Index, indicating that although the implementation of the luxury tax policy fails to restrain the housing price, it does significantly reduce the trading volume of real estates, meaning that investors shrink significantly from the market due to the luxury tax policy. However, the actual price registration policy has a significant positive influence on Cathay Trading Volume Index, which is probably because the actual price registration doesn’t equal the nett taxation, and benefits the transaction of real estates by making the housing price more transparent.
2. Causality Test
A bilateral causality exists between Cathay Trading Volume Index and Cathay Housing Price Index, the national income and Cathay Housing Price Index, the money supply and the national income, and the money supply and the floor area recorded on construction license, indicating that Cathay Trading Volume Index and the national income are impact factors of Cathay Housing Price Index. Besides, the money supply leads Cathay Housing Price Index, meaning that the money supply is the leading predictor of Cathay Housing Price Index.
3. Impulse-Response Function Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition
According to the impulse-response function, we can learn that Cathay Housing Price Index impacts the housing price the most in the current period when it has changed one standard deviation; the change of Cathay Housing Price Index impacts the money supply the most after the second phase. According to the forecast error variance decomposition, Cathay Housing Price Index can be fully self-explained, and the money supply is the second best variable which can be clearly explained.
According to the above-mentioned study, the results of the impulse-response function, the forecast error variance decomposition, and the causality test show that the money supply influences the housing price the most among macroeconomic variables. The implementation of the luxury tax policy makes the trading volume of housing decline and the transaction price of housing unchanged. The actual price registration policy has no influence on the housing price and has a positive influence on the trading volume. The study is expected to serve as references to the housing price policy formulated by the government as well as decisions made by investors regarding investments in real estates.
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