| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 經濟學系 === 102 === Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is composed of twelve member countries, which follws the spirit of comprehensive liberalization in the new generation free trade agreement (FTA). In other words, not only commodity trade but also service trade liberalization plays an important role in TPP. This thesis aims at providing an empirical analysis on the economy-wide impact of Taiwan’s participation in TPP. The associated numerical results will provide useful information that facilitates the optimal design of related policies and supporting measures. Specifically, this thesis adopts the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model along with the GTAP version 8.1 database for our quantitative analysis. We consider not only import tariff reduction for freer trade of physical commodities, but also tariff equivalent reduction and the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) for service trade liberalization. In particular, we highlight the role of FDI in the service trade liberalization, and design three simulation scenarios, consisting of (1) the first simulation scenario uses import tariff reduction for opening goods trade; (2) in addition to the shocks in scenario 1, the second simulation scenario further removes tariff equivalent in service trade; (3) in addition to the shcoks in scenario 2, the third simulation scenario further considers the effect of FDI flows.
According to our simulation results, Taiwan will experience economic gains after trade liberalization with TPP member countries uder all simulation scenarios. In addition, FDI flows significantly affect the numerical results of service trade liberalization. After considering FDI, the economic gains of Taiwan decline. In other words, considering FDI flows in a simulation scenario of service trade liberalization will not necessarily lead to a positive economic impact on the participating country. This conclusion is quite different from that drawn in the traditional literature on service trade liberalization which merely considers the reduction in tariff equivalent of service trade. Among all service sectors, the trade sector has the most significant percentage increase in the output becasue this sector can flexibly change its service mode. Accordingly, the government should revise the legislation in a timely manner and introduce service standard system to increase the industrial competitiveness. The other business services sector has the most significant percentage decrease in the output owing to its FDI net outflow. Government should set associated investment regulation and encourage FDI inflow so as to maintain the production level. Finally, Taiwan should engage in the service industry cooperation with the TPP developed countries, such as the USA and Japan, and invest in the TPP developing countries (such as Vietnam and Brunei) in order to expand the international market.
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