A Construction and Implementation of a Port State Control Forecasting Model for Ship Deficiencies

• Main Authors: Chiang, Tsung-Wei, 江宗威
• Other Authors: Chung, Cheng-Chi
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/13677613104456059198

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 102 === For the safety for life, ship, and cargos, and the protection of marine environment, the port state control (PSC) is essential. This study focuses on the deficiencies of ship inspection using the latest nine years data form Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding (Tokyo MOU) to analyze current developments of deficiencies for ship inspection. Furthermore, the GM(1,1) Model, GM(1,1) Alpha Model, RRGM(1,1) Model of Grey theory are adopted to analyze trends of deficiencies of ship inspection. By the advantage of Grey prediction to deal with the indeterminate system, we analyze the deficiency trends of ship inspection and compare the accuracy. The result shows as below: 1. As to Tokyo MOU of deficiencies of ship inspection currently, the top seven deficiencies are “Fire safety measure”, “Safety of navigation”, “Lifesaving appliance”, “Stability, structure and related equipment”, “Load lines”, “MARPOL-Annex I”, and “Propulsion and auxiliary machine”. These deficiencies account for 70 percent of the total deficiencies. 2. The deficiency number of Tokyo MOU of ship inspection is increasing gradually year by year. The greatest increasing ratio to 100 percent is “MARPOL-Annex I” deficiency. Second, the increasing ratio to 89.89 percent is “Stability, structure and related equipment” deficiency. “Propulsion and auxiliary machine” deficiency is reduced in 22.93 percent. Knowing the trend of deficiency of ship inspection will help the port state control officer to inspect the ship more efficiently, and decrease deficiency of sub-standard ship effectively. The findings will assist the Port State Control Officer in inspection and government authorities in formulating ship and port policies.