| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 國際企業學系 === 102 === This paper mainly explores the situation that when the traditional agricultural producers faces free trade and modern agriculture’s grain crop price fluctuations and natural climate changes, they will consider a level of pricing for grain crops and a probability of climate changes by developing a dynamic grain crop rotation model. Traditional, the scholar in agriculture economic accustomed to simulate yield by mathematical models, in agronomy, they usually use the variables of production to predict yield. But this paper combine the game model and Markov process that common usage in these two fields for producers’ strategic forecasting and recommendations and add the decision-making of agricultural production. At first, this paper introduces the mixed strategy of game theory to construct a 2-player game. Next, in consideration of the pursuit of the maximization of interests, the decision-making associated with dynamic grain crop rotation which will be extended to a multiple stable dynamic grain crop rotation strategy cycle, then develop a stationary Markov process as the basis for a final decision. Finally, this paper attempts to add foreign competitors to import grain in the domestic market, thus to construct 3-palyer game and extend the decision model for domestic producers for further studies
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