An Application of Real Options in Air and Maritime Travelers Scheduling by Weather Affected: The Case of the Outlying Islands in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Yu-Ling Jao, 饒玉鈴
• Other Authors: Chih-Peng Chu
• Format: Others
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/b4p36p

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 企業管理學系 === 102 === With increasing threat of uncertainty of global climate, extreme weather conditions emerge one after another. A variety of very serious disasters as hurricanes, floods or snow, etc., can be found around the world, resulting in great inconvenience to people's lives. It not only disturbs people’s daily schedules, but also causes the traffic shutting-down. In recent years, in response to the problem, more and more derivative products of weather emerge to meet people’s hedging needs. The study takes novel methods to avoid the risk of weather uncertainty, taking advantage of real options to resolve the traffic inconvenience caused by weather in outlying island regions in Taiwan. Among these options, as fog seasons always result in traffic stop in the outlying island regions of departure in western, it mainly takes Matsu regions as main area for implementation. As low visibility leads to the stop of aircraft or vessels, therefore, we take visibility as main criteria for driving. We apply Black-Scholes model’s deriving and extending structure, by which the travelers will have an additional insurance for traveling in future.