A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption

A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption

碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 企業管理學系 === 102 === The purpose of this research is to find an efficient method of Time Series Analysis forecasting for bottled water consumption in top twelve countries. Adopting a bottom up approach, it attempts to identify the most suitable forecasting method for each of top twel...

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Main Author: Houman Farahanchi
Other Authors: Chih-Peng Chu
Format: Others
Published: 2014
Online Access:http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40442953857412947746
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spelling ndltd-TW-102NDHU51210022015-10-13T23:10:34Z http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40442953857412947746 A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption Houman Farahanchi Houman Farahanchi 碩士 國立東華大學 企業管理學系 102 The purpose of this research is to find an efficient method of Time Series Analysis forecasting for bottled water consumption in top twelve countries. Adopting a bottom up approach, it attempts to identify the most suitable forecasting method for each of top twelve countries, separately. Therefore, the individual countries’ bottled water consumption figures for the period (1999-2011), form the basis of the analysis. Six different Moving Averages (MA) methods along with the Exponential Smoothing and Linear Regression methods are applied to historical data in order to forecast the market. Two kinds of measurement errors as RMSE and MAPE are used as a basis of evaluating and comparing the accuracy of various forecasts and then the most efficient forecasting method is identified. Finally, it is noted that, in view of the numeracy of factor affecting the market, the best forecasting method for each country does not necessarily remain the same from one year to the next. Therefore, the objective of this study is to provide better insights into the practice of forecasting in an industry as encouraged. Chih-Peng Chu 褚志鵬 2014 學位論文 ; thesis 78
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sources NDLTD
description 碩士 === 國立東華大學 === 企業管理學系 === 102 === The purpose of this research is to find an efficient method of Time Series Analysis forecasting for bottled water consumption in top twelve countries. Adopting a bottom up approach, it attempts to identify the most suitable forecasting method for each of top twelve countries, separately. Therefore, the individual countries’ bottled water consumption figures for the period (1999-2011), form the basis of the analysis. Six different Moving Averages (MA) methods along with the Exponential Smoothing and Linear Regression methods are applied to historical data in order to forecast the market. Two kinds of measurement errors as RMSE and MAPE are used as a basis of evaluating and comparing the accuracy of various forecasts and then the most efficient forecasting method is identified. Finally, it is noted that, in view of the numeracy of factor affecting the market, the best forecasting method for each country does not necessarily remain the same from one year to the next. Therefore, the objective of this study is to provide better insights into the practice of forecasting in an industry as encouraged.
author2 Chih-Peng Chu
author_facet Chih-Peng Chu
Houman Farahanchi
Houman Farahanchi
author Houman Farahanchi
Houman Farahanchi
spellingShingle Houman Farahanchi
Houman Farahanchi
A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption
author_sort Houman Farahanchi
title A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption
title_short A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption
title_full A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption
title_fullStr A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption
title_full_unstemmed A Comparison Between Different Types of Time Series Analysis Forecasting Methods for Forecasting Top Twelve Countries’Bottled Water Consumption
title_sort comparison between different types of time series analysis forecasting methods for forecasting top twelve countries’bottled water consumption
publishDate 2014
url http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/40442953857412947746
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