| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立嘉義大學 === 管院碩士在職專班 === 102 === Abstract
By using a few data and simple statistical methods, the purpose of this paper is to explore the impact on export of Taiwan to the U.S. after the entry into force of U.S.-Korea FTA, or KORUS FTA on March 15, 2012. The data sample period excluding event month, March 2012, was the first anniversary from April 2012 to March 2013 after KORUS came into effect.
This paper uses three methods including the actual export value method, the fixed ratio method, and the multiple regression model method to estimate Taiwan’s (Korea’s) export amount to the U.S. with the assumption that if there were no KORUS. Further, it express the KORUS impact on Taiwan’s export to the U.S. in two ways, which one is the impact on Taiwan’s export amount (ratio) to U.S, the other is the change of gap between Taiwan’s export amount (ratio) to U.S. and Korea’s.
The empirical results show that clothing and shoes industry has significant and unfavorable impact on Taiwan’s export to U.S. for amount US$60 million, or ratio -8.97%. Electrical and electronic, tools and hardware, furniture, and toys have insignificant and unfavorable impact on Taiwan’s export to U.S. for amount (ratio) US$65 million (-0.44%), US$24 million (-1.74%), US$42 million (-4.12%), and US$31million (-3.68%), respectively. The total unfavorable amount is US$222 million. Vehicle part industry has insignificant and unfavorable impact on Taiwan’s export to U.S., but the unfavorable amount is difficult to estimate.
The results indicate that the unfavorable amount and industry sectors, impacted after KORUS taking effect, are not the same as that of forecasts of the government and researches.
Keywords: US-Korea FTA, US-Korea Free Trade Agreement
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