| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 產業經濟研究所在職專班 === 102 === People of all sectors a hold bipolar view of the impact and effectiveness of the luxury tax policy, which has been implemented for two years as of June of this year. Although the implementation of the policy had the short-term effect of restraining housing prices, the market trading volume has declined significantly, and the transaction price is still rising slowly. There have been continuous disputes over the benefits and abolition of the policy. Thus this thesis explores the impact of the luxury tax imposed on the overall housing prices in Taiwan and the real estate prices in Taipei metropolitan area. In this study, the luxury tax was set as a dummy variable, and the model of least squares method was used to conduct regression analysis. Additionally, the study period was divided into two phases, namely pre-implementation and after implementation of the policy. The study interprets the relations between housing prices and various economic variables through the analysis of the impulse response of Vector Autoregressive Model and the results of forecast error variance decomposition.
The thesis has empirically analyzed the housing price index, which is published by the R&D office of Xinyi Fangwu (a real estate company in Taiwan), with four macroeconomic variables and four regional economic variables. The results of the study are summarized as follows: (1) According to the regression analysis, the impact of the luxury tax on housing prices in Taipei metropolitan area was positive and significant but small. The imposition of the luxury tax by the government did not slow down the growth of the housing price in Taipei. (2) According to the impulse response analysis, before the implementation of the luxury tax, the housing price index in itself remained a positive response, and the remaining economic variables had no obvious positive or negative response to the housing price index; after the implementation of the luxury tax, the housing prices index in the metropolitan area had a negative response during the fourth to the sixth phase, then gradually returned to normal. (3) According to the results of forecast error variance decomposition, before the implementation of the luxury tax, the explanatory power of prediction error of the housing price index in itself remained up to above 80%, indicating that in a short-term period, the housing price index is not affected by the other macroeconomic variables; after the implementation of the luxury tax, on the seventh phase, the explanatory power of prediction error on the housing price index in the metropolitan area reduced to 50%, whereas after the seventh phase, the explanatory power of the mortgage interest rates in Taipei on the fluctuations of the housing price index increased to 24.45%, indicating that the mortgage interest rates in Taipei have high explanatory power on the fluctuations of the housing price index.
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