| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中央大學 === 土木工程學系 === 102 === Land use change, being the consequence of the interactions of the environment, society economic, policy and human activity, causes significant impacts on water environment. These impacts can be magnified under climate change (global warming) situation which is expected to rise the temperature and alter the hydrological cycle. This study investigates both land use changes and climate changes to analyze the impact of hydrological fluxes under future scenario. The CLUE-s model and MGWLF model were to employed to estimate the impacts of hydrological fluxes of Fongshan River basin in Northern Taiwan, given land use changes and climate changes condition projected in 2031. For data analysis, GIS was employed to analyze the driving forces of land use changes, then CLUE-s model to project the land use changes and GCMs model to take into account the climate change in 2031. The outcomes of land use change and climate change were investigated with the use of MGWLF model to estimate the variation of hydrological fluxes. The results of simulation indicated that the monthly stream flow, base flow and evapotranspiration decreased 1.06 cm, 0.59 cm and 0.45 cm, respectively. However, the impacts of climate change with current land use condition showed monthly stream flow, base flow and evapotranspiration decreased 0.97 cm, 0.57 cm and 0.22 cm, respectively. Under current climate condition, the impacts compared between the land use change and current land use showed that the monthly stream flow and evapotranspiration increased 0.04 cm and 0.02 cm, respectively, while the base flow decreased 0.08 cm. In conclusion, the relative influence on hydrologic fluxes due to climate change was far more larger than that due to land use change in this specific region.
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