A Trend Analysis of Loan Structure of Banks in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Chiou, Ling-I, 邱令宜
• Other Authors: Hu, Jin-Li
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/56676401910806842160

碩士 === 國立交通大學 === 管理學院經營管理學程 === 102 === The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate whether the changes in loan structure of banks are associated with fluctuations in the economy in Taiwan. The time series method is adopted, including the unit root test, Granger causality test, and impulse response analysis. The dataset is from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2013. Our major empirical findings are summarized as follows: When GDP rises, the proportion of loans to private enterprises will increase, while those for individuals and government agencies decrease. When the consumer price index rises, the proportion of loans to government enterprises will increase. When unemployment rate rises, the proportion of loans to private enterprises will decrease, whereas it will increase for individuals and government agencies. When the interest rate spread rises, the proportion of loans to government enterprises will decrease. When the stock price rises, the proportion of loans to private enterprises will increase, while that for government agencies will decrease. When the house price rises, the proportion of loans to government enterprises will decrease. When the proportion of loans to private enterprises increases, the consumer price index will rise and NPL ratio will fall. When the proportion of loans to government agencies increases, consumer price index, and house price will fall while NPL ratio will rise. Based on the above findings, we conclude that loan structure of banks is impacted by fluctuations in the economy significantly, especially for private enterprises. In view of foreseeable fluctuations in the economy, banks tend to adjust lending to private sectors first.