Integrated utilization of consequential models for scenario-based environmental assessment of energy technology introduction strategies: A case in electric vehicles in Taiwan

• Main Authors: Ning-YiWu, 吳寧宜
• Other Authors: Yasuhiro Fukushima
• Format: Others
• Language: en_US
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/kj9285

碩士 === 國立成功大學 === 環境工程學系 === 102 === Technology innovation in energy domain is expected to avoid the crises in resource depletion and climate change. However, no single technology can resolve all the problems. Various technologies need to be implemented jointly so as to make substantial difference. It is considered that some of the innovations exhibit synergy, while others may compete with each other or to cancel out its effects. Therefore, to understand how much technology innovations can offer to avoid the crises, an assessment framework that is capable of looking into key interactions among various innovations in energy technologies is needed. This study presents a prototype of scenario-based environmental assessment framework of energy-related technology roadmaps. The framework is demonstrated with several of the Taiwan’s roadmap in green energy technologies. By shifting internal combustion engine vehicles into electric vehicles, the emissions from mobile sources are reduced. In the meantime, load balancing can be achieved when the electric vehicles are connected to the grid through advanced charging facilities. There is inevitably a loss during recharging and discharging, which may to some extent cancel out the emission reduction achieved by introducing more renewable and cleaner energy sources, such as photovoltaic and wind power systems. Meanwhile, it reduces the demand of gasoline and hence the operation of petrochemical refineries. Power mix optimization model, consequential model for petrochemical industry, and scenario models for vehicles use and replacement are used in an integrated manner to comprehensively assess abovementioned contributions together with different context setting of introducing renewable energy and other energy saving technologies. Significant differences among the results from use of integrated models developed in the study, mere summation of individual assessment, and calculations with different level integration. While the integrated results are not yet proved to be more accurate, it incorporates known interactions, which support holistic discussions on priorities of innovation. For example in this study, the contribution in reducing emission under different assumptions, by the introduction of photovoltaic and wind systems, bioethanol and high-efficiency appliances, is compared. The results show introducing photovoltaic and wind system has the highest contribution and emission change is only made negative with it.