A Multiple Countries'' Analysis of Disputes for Crude Oil and Nature Gas in the South China Sea-Taking Scarborough Shoal for example

• Main Authors: Tin-Shin Liu, 劉庭忻
• Other Authors: Wei-Chun Tseng
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/01591910224866663404

碩士 === 國立中興大學 === 應用經濟學系所 === 102 === The East Asian coastal sovereignty disputes emerge in an endless stream in recent years. The South China Sea is linked to Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa. It is also an important international business channel for China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. As the global interdependence of the international oil market increasing, the South China Sea may contain rich oil and gas resources. It makes the South China Sea become coveted goal by neighboring countries , while China and the Philippines to compete a land which only exposed in Macclesfield Bank - Scarborough Shoal, in the South China Sea. It produces disputes between China and Philippines. Scarborough Shoal dispute includes energy competition, national sovereignty and strategic factors in many sensitive issues. So Taiwan on the economic topics, strategic factors and national sovereignty, it view Scarborough Shoal incident very seriously. This study attempts through real data to explain the possible equilibrium with China, Philippines and Taiwan in the Scarborough Shoal game. In this study, I collected military costs and trade information of China, Taiwan and Philippines. I establish two-people simultaneously-moves game and three-people simultaneously-moves game. Each country has two strategies which are "tough" and "compromise" in this model. I assume as one country adopts "tough" strategy and another adopts "compromise" strategy will get all resources. The results showed that the military force is in a wide gap in three countries, the optimal solution in two-people game and three-people game are China adopted a "tough" strategy, Taiwan and the Philippines adopted "compromise "strategy.