Does Vacancy Rate Affect Housing Price?

• Main Authors: Chen, Hui Ying, 陳蕙瑩
• Other Authors: Chang, Chin Oh
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/20069687621798995557

碩士 === 國立政治大學 === 地政研究所 === 102 === Based on the statistical data collected by Population and Housing Census in Taiwan, the housing vacancy rate has shown a steady upward movement since 1980. In particular, the levels of housing vacancy rate and the numbers of vacant units have grown from 17.6% and 1,230,000 units in 2000 to 19.3% and 1,560,000 in 2010. In the past, the housing price decreased as the housing vacancy rate increased and vice versa; however, we find different situation from the previous researches that the housing price and the housing vacancy rate rise simultaneously. The housing vacancy rate can be divided into the natural vacancy rate and the non-natural vacancy rate. According to the two different natural housing vacancy rate theories, we discuss two different scenarios. First, Blank and Winnick(1953) stated that the rental adjustment is significantly affected by the relationship between the natural vacancy rate and the vacancy rate. If natural vacancy rate is higher than vacancy rate, the rental might rise in the future; on the contrary, if natural vacancy rate is lower than vacancy rate, the rental might fall. Second, the inherently imperfect nature of the housing market has imposed heavy burdens of search costs on both buyers and suppliers. In order to facilitate transactions in the market, there always has to be a certain fraction of vacant houses maintained continuously from one period to another. And the specific amount of vacant houses is regarded as the housing vacancy rate. Although the scholars estimated the natural vacancy rate but there is no literature to further discuss the relationship between the natural vacancy rate, the non-natural vacancy rate and the housing price. In hence, we calculate the two natural vacancy rates in the housing market by applying the two models based on the two theories respectively. We use the result of the two-equation structure model due to the significantly positive R-square and the average natural vacancy rate is 7.38% in Taiwan. Furthermore, we use the VAR model to examine granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis. The empirical results demonstrate that the vacancy rate and the housing price are independent which means the vacancy rate would not affect the housing price. In addition, the negative impulse response of the non-natural vacancy rate to the housing price is greater than the impulse response of the vacancy rate and the natural vacancy rate to the housing price individually. Therefore, in this empirical study, we find that using the non-natural vacancy rate to verify the adjustment of the housing price is more reasonable and precise than using the vacancy rate.