| Summary: | 碩士 === 明道大學 === 企業高階管理碩士班 === 102 === In view of the marginal profits generated in a competitive gasoline market, gas station owners have increasingly turned to multi-faceted business development. Composite stores at gas stations were thus introduced within legal constraints, namely convenience stores, as a means to enhance gas stations’ performance, also to meet customers’ needs. Yet with Taiwan’s density of convenience stores at the world’s highest, for gas station composite stores to survive rivalries and create profits, store managers must be able to select merchandise with precision and accuracy in order to cater to the demand of their target customers.
Beverages are considered necessities to quench thirst in Taiwan’s sweltering heat, particularly in summer. Also given the omnipresence of convenience stores, facilitating beverage purchases, it is no wonder that beverage products take up a great percentage of convenience stores’ total sales. Based on the trend of development in the beverage industry, this research singled out twelve varied functional beverage products with claimed health benefits, which were then rated by experts in questionnaires according to previous sales experiences. The top three products were selected upon overall weighted values. Sales figures of the ranked products were consequently forecasted using a mixed model of experts’ rules of thumb and time series analysis.
The results showed that the Item selection model developed in this research may assist composite stores in picking out suitable beverage products. The ranking of predicated sales, generated by the sales forecasting model, also corresponded to that of overall weighted values, therefore affirming the validity of this Item selection model in terms of precise and accurate Item selection for composite stores and reliable sales forecasts.
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