The Relationships Among Import ,Export and Exchange Rate : Multi-Country Evidence

• Main Authors: Chun-Chang Hsu, 許峻嶂
• Other Authors: Song-Zan Chiou-Wei
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/wwbwx4

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 國際企業系碩士在職專班 === 102 === Due to the location, economic patterns, and the shortage of natural resources in Taiwan, the economic growth of Taiwan is completely indeed supported by trade activities. After the global economic shocks, such as the financial crisis, subprime mortgage crisis, Fukushima tsunami, and quantitative easing (QE) policies and others, the depreciation or revaluation of exchange rate might be affecting the value of import and export. In this study, we applied 99 monthly data, starting from January 2006 to March 2014, to illustrate the relationships of import value, export value and exchange rate. Six variables such as the import and export values of Taiwan to United States and to Japan respectively, and the exchange rates of U.S dollar to N.T. dollar and to Japan yen, were analyzed. This thesis use the time series technique to analyze the data. The stability of original data was checked via Unit Root Test, and then Vector Auto Regression (VAR) was employed to confirm the best lag intervals, and co-integration analysis was used to decide Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and impulse response function was last used. The industrial index of Taiwan was also adopted as a complementary variable to confirm the analysis results. Results show that change of exchange rate and industrial index of Taiwan affect the import and export values of Japan significantly in the data periods. On the other hand, only the exchange rate impact the import values of United States.