An Analysis on Association between Export Orders from the United States and Japan and Exchange Rate

• Main Authors: Cheng-Hsu,Chou, 周城旭
• Other Authors: Jen-Yao Lee,Ph.D.
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/338cvu

碩士 === 國立高雄應用科技大學 === 國際企業系碩士在職專班 === 102 === Taiwan is geographically located in the economic core around the Pacific Rim, As Taiwan is an open economy country, the economic growth must rely on international trade activities, thus the fluctuation in exchange rate is very influential in international trades. This paper studies the influence of exchange rate volatility on the real exports of Taiwan to United States and Japan since Taiwan joined to the World Trade Organization in 2012. We adopted the ADF unit root test to exam if these variables are stationary, and Engle and Granger ’s cointegration analysis, to test the long run the relationships, and at last we analyst the VAR model. We find that the effects of NT dollar against the Japanese yen exchange rate on the U.S. orders, NT dollar against the Japanese yen exchange rate for export orders equation, and positive. On the other hand, the effects of NT dollar exchange rate with the U.S. orders, NT dollar exchange rate and Japan orders, are negative. Because of the uncertain relationship between the exchange rate volatility and real exports in Taiwan, it’s important for government to consider how to decrease exchange rate risk, international trade loss and cost by keeping the exchange rate steady.