The factors which affect the predictive quality of analysts

• Main Author: 彭士昇
• Other Authors: 張森河
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/19423803864484686074

碩士 === 逢甲大學 === 會計學系 === 102 === Analysts primarily play the role as the agency of investors and corporations in capital market, which integrate the information released by the corporation and pass it to investors for use in the market. However, if the information released by the company exist uncertain factors, it will further affect the behavior of analysts&;#39; forecasts. In 2003, Abarbanell and Lehavy pointed out that when companies carry on earnings management, analysts would have forecast bias. As a result, the research focuses on the relations between the earnings management of enterprises and the quality of analysts’ prediction, in order to verify whether the quality of analysts’ forecast affected by the earnings management of enterprises or not, and further explores the relations between the earnings rate of change, revenue growth rate and the quality of analysts’ forecast. In this paper, use firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange and Gretai Securities from year 2000 to 2012 as the research object, and then use Taguchi loss function as proxy variable to calculate the quality of analysts’ prediction. Empirical results indicate that the earnings management carried on for the current year has significant relation with the quality of analysts’ forecast, it means that the more the earnings management carried on in current year, the worst the quality of analysts’ forecast. However, earnings rate of change and revenue growth rate has insignificant relation with the quality of analysts’ forecast, as a result, there is no evidence that the quality of analysts&;#39; forecasts will be affected by the earnings rate of change and revenue growth rate.