An Analysis on the Market Potential and Industry Strategy of Portable Fuel Cell Industry

• Main Authors: Wen-Chen Liu, 劉文禎
• Other Authors: Shih-Mo Lin
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2014
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/35044638031125846357

碩士 === 中原大學 === 國際經營與貿易研究所 === 102 === Taiwan has been devoting to fuel cell research for more than 15 years. However, the industry scale is still not comparable to the major countries in the field. Domestic firms have mainly focused on the development of fuel cell systems and bipolar plates and the development of key materials and components is still at a very early stage. This study aims at examining the current state of Taiwan’s portable fuel cell industry and quantitatively estimating its market potential. The results will provide important information for firms in developing their future business strategy. Globally, portable fuel cells have not reached the stage of mass production and it means only limited data are available for research. As such, we rely on current market information and patent analysis to shed some lights on the potential development of future fuel cell market. Quantitatively, we estimate the learning curve of lithium battery industry for both Taiwan and Japan. We also estimate the substitution elaticities between nickel hydrogen and nickel lithium batteries, with which the analogic development between nickel lithium and fuel cell can be estimated. These results are then used to estimate the trend of cost ratio and, with the help of the phase diagram, the market potential of fuel cell industry. Our patent analysis results show that the peak year of patent application is 2009. However, up to 2014 there are still only very limited commercial portable fuel cell products available, indicating a high probability of reaching the mass production stage in two years. Econometrically, our results show a learning elasticity of -0.408 for Taiwan and a range of -0.145 to -1.163 for Japan for lithium battery industry. In addition, the elasticity of substitution between nickel hydrogen and nickel lithium is estimated to be 1.54. These lead to a cost ratio of fuel cell to lithium battery of 0.95 to 1.92 in 2020, under the assumption that 4 to 6 nickel lithium batteries can be substituted with 1 fuel cell. Moreover, the result shows that the production will be around 2 million to 5 million units annually by 2020.