Back-Propagation Neural Network in NTD/USD exchange rate forecast.

• Main Authors: CHEN, CHAO-CHEN, 陳昭成
• Other Authors: 黃漢誠
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/52949149669114773352

碩士 === 育達商業科技大學 === 休閒事業管理系碩士班 === 101 === Due to high degree of freedom in global trade system and rapid flow of international funds between countries, the increasing fluctuation of exchangerates becomes difficult to predict. Furthermore, the fluctuation of exchange rate has a wide and far-reaching effect, which affects the government agencies, large-scale multinational enterprises, and small companies engaged in import and export business. They also include the leisure industries involved in in-bound and out-bound tourism services. Likewise, the loss and risk to the tourism industries due to the exchange rate fluctuation are difficult to predict. It is very desirable to have an accurate forecast tool to predict and manage the trend of exchange rate fluctuation, and thus to take effective hedging measures and reduce loss and risk to the tourism industries. Therefore, the loss reduction and risk management against the exchange rate fluctuation have become important issues for many import and export businesses. Using the Back-propagation Neural Networks as a research tool and incorporating theSupervised Learning Method to adjust connect weights and optimize the mapping solution from input parameters, this study aims to increase the accuracy of predicting exchange rates. Four major categories of variable model that affect the exchange rate are compared with respect to their predicting accuracy. The criteria used to measure the predicting accuracy are based on calculating the Absolute Relative Error (ARE) and Correlation Coefficient between the actual and predicted values. This study intends to provide the most accurate prediction model that can be used as a forecast reference for tourism business to reduce the risk from exchange rate fluctuation. Other potential uses for forecast reference include assessment of personal finance and investment, corporate financial decisions, importers and exporters to hedge foreign exchange risk, and management strategy of government exchange rate.