A Diffusion Forecasting Model with Application to the iPhone Demand

• Main Authors: Yu-Hao Hsu, 許育豪
• Other Authors: Ruey-Chyn Tsaur
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/5m7s4w

碩士 === 淡江大學 === 管理科學學系碩士班 === 101 === The smartphone iPhone is entered the market in 2007 and has been all over the world. With the dramatical developing in the smartphone innovation and continuous improvement, the product life cycle of smartphones becomes shorter than before. Therefore, a good forecasting to the smartphone demand can reduce the inventory cost and production cost for the manufactures. In oreder to cope with such problem, we use the iPhone seasonal sales from the third quarter of 2009 to the end of 2012 for illustration by using the Bass diffusion models with the adjustment of price function and attractive character function for the iPhone. The results show that the proposed diffusion model can make a good forecasting performance with the smaller MAPE as well as 14.5%.