| Summary: | 碩士 === 淡江大學 === 運輸管理學系碩士班 === 101 === Owing to rapid development of information and communication technologies operations of transportation systems are facing a new era. With ubiquitous network people increasingly demand real-time information that makes real-time traffic information become one of attractive services in ITS. Technological forecasting is currently one of the most important research topics in the field of technology management. It is very necessary to find out and search the implicit, previously unknown and potentially valuable information in the big data world. Therefore, this study aims at establishing one of comprehensive and rigorous procedures for ATIS applications by tech mining.
The study combines the tech mining with patent analysis together to find out the keywords of ATIS technologies by using expert interviews and literature review. Technological evolutionary trends are forecasted based on patent database from TIPO and USPTO. Current status of ATIS technologies and their progress can be indentified with logistic curve model. The maturity of current ATIS technologies can be assessed by using life cycle theory. Except quantitative results of the empirical study with tech mining and patent analysis, in-depth interviews with experts by using AHP are also made for verifying results each other. This approach will, hence, provide more reliable evidence for deploying ATIS technological strategies and their priorities in the future.
The empirical study shows that there are no significant variation between results of patent analysis together with tech mining and those of the experts’ opinions. No matter in USA or in Taiwan, current status of ATIS technological development is in the basic stage. The Global Positioning System (GPS), RFID / NFC, image detection, radar microwave motion sensor and optical fiber transmission are the promising technologies in the future. In addition, cloud computing technology is also a very popular one in recent years. In summary, not only technological gaps of the development of ATIS should be reduced intensively but also R & D human resources should be explored as well. The output of this study can provide useful information for ATIS researchers and experts and the approach in this study can also be adapted to other disciplines with appropriate modifications.
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