| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北科技大學 === 經營管理系碩士班 === 101 === As China''s economy continued to grow over the years of foreign trade of high-speed development and foreign investment in the introduction, is the main reason for the rapid increase in the foreign exchange reserves, this study attempts to forecast the future trend of China''s foreign exchange reserves to the regression model of the scientific method, however, affect China''s foreign exchange there are many factors that kept the end, the Chinese foreign exchange reserves will be subject to domestic policies and economic factors, many papers in the past more than the economy and many other factors to be explored, this study also take economic factors as the main variables for the actual use of foreign investment, the total exports economic indicators of the consumer price index, U.S. dollar exchange rate, international crude oil prices, the U.S. unemployment rate and U.S. Treasury bonds, through the best grouping regression to establish a multiple regression model.
The study found that the regression model showed China''s foreign exchange reserves change by the U.S. Treasury, U.S. exchange rate and the total exports of the three have affected more significantly, especially U.S. Treasury bonds most significant impact on China''s foreign exchange reserves.
Finally, two multiple regression model, China''s foreign exchange reserves in March 2012 to May 2012 forecast, and compare the results with the actual values, results of this study predicted and actual values in the 95% confidence interval, so the model for the effective prediction model.
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