Apply of Grey System Theory to the Operating Performance Evaluation System-Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation

• Main Authors: Shiue-Wen Shiu, 許學文
• Other Authors: 蔡武德
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/92345569369373451994

碩士 === 樹德科技大學 === 經營管理研究所 === 101 === 　　Carbon reduction over the world people are concerned about caring for the earth is the question, Our government and the private sector is no exception. Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation responsible for reducing exhaust emissions, Promoting public means of transport ride to replace steam locomotive, In 2002, construction began on November 28 MRT Transport System. The importance of this case study is to investigate the Kaohsiung Rapid Transit Corporation to operate efficiently, so that more complete transportation system in Kaohsiung, but also can bring more people to take public transport selectivity and convenience. Actual occurrence, This study aimed to explore the gray theory Kaohsiung MRT system operating performance and future trends. 　　Subjects of this study Kaohsiung Rapid Transit　Corporation, Information and data collected after the gray relational analysis Kaohsiung MRT operating performance factor analysis and correlation, Then constructed from the analysis of the data gray prediction theory GM (1,1) model, Least squares model, Exponential smoothing model, Moving average model, Kaohsiung MRT operating performance to predict future trends, and join residual test and roll test to detect whether this prediction model to achieve accurate results. Through regular and simple reality of gray prediction model to help managers in decision-making when there are more reference. 　　Grey relational analysis showed that operating performance associated with the Kaohsiung MRT higher number for the ride. In addition, empirical construct of GM (1,1) model accuracy of 95.36%, least squares model accuracy 94.85%, exponential smoothing model accuracy 93.78%, 94.49% moving average model, All of the above prediction that the future development of Kaohsiung MRT operating performance for the stable growth trend, also found that GM (1,1) model accuracy is up to four models, more stable growth in operating performance may show the authenticity of the data.