Consumer Confidence Index andTerms of Trade -The Case Study of Taiwan

• Main Authors: Pao-yu Lee, 李寶玉
• Other Authors: none
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/33ce7y

碩士 === 世新大學 === 財務金融學研究所(含碩專班) === 101 === In general, it is seen there are uptrend increases in the commodity indices. Taiwan is a small open economic body that has always relied on import and export trades. The lack of natural resources means everything must be imported. The upward market trends have huge impacts on Taiwan in terms of its import and export trades and have psychological effects on Taiwan’s consumer confidence. They in turn cause consequences to Taiwan’s capital market and industrial input. The aim of the research is to discuss the correlation between commodity indices and Taiwan’s terms of trade, consumer confidence, capital market development and industrial input through vector auto-regression and Granger causality test. The resources used in the research are commodity indices from the IMF and statistical data from the Directorate-General of Budget (Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan) and the data sample are 140 monthly data from January 2001 to August 2012. In the research, models were designed for all variables to conduct the empirical study. From the result obtained from the model estimation, it is found that the trade terms of the mechanical industry affects Taiwan’s consumer confidence and Taiwan’s consumer confidence significantly affects the import and export of electronic products. The exchange rate has negative effects on Taiwan’s terms of trade, trade terms of electronic products and trade terms of the mechanical industry of the next period.