The research on river restoration impact of land prices the Hsu-Chuan River in Keelung

• Main Authors: Chiu-Wen Lai, 賴秋文
• Other Authors: Chinj-Hui Wu
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83157543645740891026

碩士 === 中國文化大學 === 建築及都市計劃研究所 === 101 === Tracing back the history of mankind, ancient civilizations were all built around the rivers; we can even say that most human communities and urban development are closely connected with the rivers. Although rivers are important to mankind, we often overlook and ignore their values of existence. From the previous relevant land value documents we can see that most documents were focused on the transportation routes and the impact of urban planning on the land values, and few discussed the connections between river factors and land values. This study intended to review, to analyze and to develop its theoretical framework by document review, and it explained how the Hsu-Chuan River covering construction and remediation impacted the land values with time series analysis. It also analyzed the impact of river remediation on the land values by collecting the data of announced current value, topography and geomorphology over the years of the land value districts nearby the left bank of Hsu-Chuan River. The study was divided into five chapters and twenty sections. The first chapter explained the origin, motivation and purpose of the study, and it established the research steps, methods and procedure as the basis. The second chapter established the theoretical framework by collecting land value factors, conducting time series analysis on the river remediation, and document reviews according to the research purpose. The third chapter collected land value data of the Hsu-Chuan River empirical districts and constructed the time series analysis model. The fourth chapter firstly illustrated the time series graphic to explain the impact degree of Hsu-Chuan River covering and restoration plan on the land values, and then explained the price differences between model estimated values and actual values by the time series analysis with ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) introduced by Box-Jenkins. The fifth chapter provided conclusion and suggestions according to the research results. The research results revealed that the Hsu-Chuan River remediation and covering construction for the Hsu-Chuan building and East-Bank viaduct during 1975-1978 were of a major government public investment in construction and transportation development, so that the housing supply would be increased, spatial and time distances would be shortened, and local real estate values would be improved. Indeed, the local land values rose accordingly from the planning to the completion stages of the project. The land values of the district 50m (meters) from the river had risen 26.6% during 1975-1978, while the other two groups dropped 9.83% averagely. However, it was observed that the land values of all three groups dropped every year after 1993, due to the river obstruction, sewage problems after the covering construction and the terrible environmental problems caused by Kan-Tsai-Ding fish market. As a result, from the flourishing prosperity the Hsu-Chuan business building slowly went downhill as the problems gradually appeared. During 1993-2008, the three groups of lands which are 50m, 100m, and 200m from the river dropped around 5.95%, 5.77% and 6.35% respectively. In order to create a waterfront urban imagery, in 2009, Keelung City Government planned to demolish the existing Hsu-Chuan Building and East-Bank viaduct, recovering the water imagery by opening the covered Hsu-Chuan River, and was going to plan for waterfront recreation spaces. However, as the recovery plan of Hsu-Chuan area seemed no progress and the river restoration plan wasn't significantly developed, the three groups continued to drop 6.5%, 8.37% and 6.21% since 2009. Lastly, it is predicted that the land values of the three groups will rise 8.98%, 8.37% and 8.89% annually from 2013 to 2015. The closer the lands are to the river, the higher the land values will rise. It's obvious to tell from the fact that the housing prices of waterfront residential are higher than other residential of the same type.