A Multi-Stage Financial Crisis Prediction Model

• Main Authors: Chou,Tsu-Yueh, 周祖玥
• Other Authors: Lee, Mu-Shan
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/53433238739307210752

碩士 === 中國文化大學 === 會計學系 === 101 === Financial crisis forecasting is an essential and widely researches domains since it can have considerable effect on inner and outside parts of companies. How to effectively predict financial crisis is an important task in accounting, finance and management. Though much attention has been paid to financial crisis forecasting approaches based on singular classifier, its limitation of uncertainty and advantage of hybrid mechanism for financial crisis forecasting has also been ignored. Inspired by ensemble learning, the study introduced an emerging hybrid mechanism which hybrid t-test, K-means and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for financial crisis forecasting. According to our empirical results, the proposed hybrid mechanism poses outstanding performance in terms of forecasting accuracy. The proposed mechanism can give a proper direction for decision makers to make a judgment in turbulent economic environment.