| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 生物環境系統工程學研究所 === 101 === This study aims to access the changes between water supply systems and subjects of water demand under the influences of climate change with the analysis framework of vulnerability and resilience. First, the carrying capacity of the Touchien watershed water supply system is simulated by the water supply system dynamics model based on future climate scenarios derived from the general circulation models (GCMs) output data. Then, the gaps between water supply and demands are further analyzed. Furthermore, the quantitative indicators are applied to evaluate the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the Touchien watershed and the changes of resilience considering the impacts of climate change. The results indicate that a lower carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change and significant increase in future water demands will lead to an insufficient water supply in the future. According to the spatial distribution of vulnerability analysis, despite that all regions in the Touchien watershed do not reached a high degree of vulnerability, some of them have an increased vulnerability due to the increase in public water demand. The regions with an increased vulnerability should have top priority to implement the adaptation strategies. The resilience indicators show that both public water resilience and agricultural water resilience have a decrease trend under climate change, which means a longer time for the water supply system to recover from a water shortage. In addition, the agricultural water resilience in first growing period is not only lower than second growing period, but also facing a greater decline. Summary of research results can explain that climate change has a serious impact on water supply system. Moreover, the assessment of carrying capacity, vulnerability and resilience are consistent for each GCM and increase the possibility of research findings. Therefore, this study worth the attentions from related water agencies which should develop adaptation actions as soon as possible.
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