| Summary: | 博士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 101 === This dissertation includes three empirical studies on the tourism demand. The first studies the policy impact of Taiwan’s opening for Chinese tourists. The second explores the time-varying parameters model of the real exchange rate on Taiwan’s international tourism demand. The third investigates the piece-wise marginal effect of world heritage sites on the international tourism demand worldwide.
Chapter 1
Chinese Tourists in Taiwan: Changes in Visa Requirements, Crowding Effects and Management Implications
In July 2008, Taiwan passed legislation to allow Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Even though this legislation has increased total inbound tourists, we are interested in potential crowding-out effects which may have a negative impact on Taiwan’s tourism. We analyze tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong, and the United States to explore the crowding-out effect. Using seasonal ARIMA models with joint estimation of intervention and outlier effects, we find that Chinese tourists significantly crowd out Taiwan’s international tourists from Japan and the United States, but not those from Hong Kong, even with Taiwan’s increased tourism capacity. Therefore, our results indicate that Taiwan should either further enhance tourism capacity or decelerate its opening policy to avoid severe crowding-out effects.
Chapter 2
Do Exchange Rates Affect International Tourist Arrivals in Taiwan? An Empirical Study Using Time-Varying Parameter Model
There has been a debatable effect of the exchange rate on tourism demand. Not only the significance but the sign of the effect is questionable. Traditionally, time series regression model assumes parameters are constant over time, but this assumption is restrictive. For Taiwan’s time series data of international tourist arrivals from Japan, Hong Kong and the United States, not only tourist arrivals but also their relations with price factors would change structurally. Therefore, the time-varying parameter (TVP) approach is employed to explore the stability of influences of real exchange rates on Taiwan’s international tourist arrivals between 1971Q1 and 2011Q1. Allowing parameters varying by time, the estimated results indicate that the significantly positive effect of real exchange rates. However, this effect would occur only when the economic condition declines in source countries, or for whose income levels are close to or lower than Taiwan.
Chapter 3
Analysis of International Tourist Arrivals Worldwide: The Role of World Heritage Sites
By using the panel data of 66 countries between 2000 and 2009, we study the positive effect of world heritage sites (WHSs) on the demand for international tourism, and investigate how this effect changes according to different numbers of WHSs. Our results indicate that a country possessing WHSs would increase its international tourist arrivals, and the positive effect of natural WHSs is slightly larger than that of cultural ones. Therefore, a country possessing a WHS is able to benefit from the development of its tourism economy. Moreover, this positive effect declines as the number of WHSs rises, but when a country possesses sufficient WHSs, the effect increases instead. Thus, the marginal effect of WHSs exhibits a U-shaped pattern as the number of WHSs increases. In addition, even though the marginal effect of WHSs has a different pattern for each region, based on the time periods, the results are quite robust.
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