| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺灣大學 === 國家發展研究所 === 101 === In this study, we examine the interrelationships among China and it’s East Asia neighbors’ real Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and real GDP Growth from the first quarter of 1993 to fourth quarter of 2011, and especially focus on the spillover effects of China’s growth on growth of the other East Asia entities, including Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Indonesia. First, Using Unit Root Test and Cointegration Test suggest there are groups of long-term equilibrium relationship among all variables. Then we utilize Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), along with Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Function and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition techniques to estimate the short-term effects. The major empirical results are shown as follows:
1. Granger Causality Test
In the recent decade, Not only Hong Kong’s real GDP and Indonesia’s real GDP Granger cause China’s real GDP, but China’s real GDP also Granger causes the formers’. Besides, China’s real GDP Growth Granger causes the one of Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia. The predictability of China’s growth becomes significant to growth of those entities as mentioned.
2. Impulse Response Function
According to the Impulse Response Function graph, for the whole period observed, on the average, the East Asian Tigers have more negative reaction in face of China’s growth impulse, but the other Southeast Asian countries, on the opposite, respond more positively, which implies china’s growth probably bring threat to the East Asian Tigers, but be complementary for the other developing Southeast Asian countries. However, after China joined WTO, the impulse occured from the innovation of China’s real GDP, from the second period, seems influence all its East Asian neighbors negatively, and there’s no convergence sign, which suggests china’s rapid growth in the recent decade has been posing threat to most East Asian entities.
3. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition
Except for Japan and Hong Kong, it is not significant for the explainability from the variance of China’s real GDP to the forecast error variance of the other East Asian Countries’ real GDP in the whole period observed. However, when we focus on the recent decade, since China joined WTO, excluding Japan and Indonesia, China’s growth spillovers have significantly increased, especially for North East Asian entities, more than half of the real GDP forecast error variance of which can be explained by the variance of China’s real GDP, which features China’s growth exogeneity compared to the other East Asian entities’ in the recent decade. And the explainability enhances increasingly in the subsequent periods, except for Philippines which is influenced by China most obviously in the first period.
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