| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立臺北大學 === 企業管理學系 === 101 === This research is to explore how macroeconomic variables affect carriers’ revenue with special focus on the three "Telecommunications" Giants - Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile and Far EasTone, using monthly data from January 2001 to December 2011. Dynamic analysis is conducted to study the effects of macroeconomic variables on the operating performance of the telecommunications industry using time series approach and the impulse response functions of vector autoregressive model (VAR) and Granger causality test. The empirical findings are summarized as follows:
1. Using Granger causality test, we have found out that changes in macroeconomic variables have a casual relationship with the revenue changes of the three Telecommunications Giants. The change rate of the telecommunication industry population has a significant impact on the change rate of Chunghwa Telecom revenue as well as Taiwan Mobile revenue. The change rate of the consumer price index can significantly affect the change rate of Chunghwa Telecom revenue. In addition, the unemployment variables can also have influence on the change rate of EasTone Telecommunication revenue.
2. Using the impulse response function of VAR model, we also find out that , in the short term, the change rate of the consumer price index, unemployment, and the communications industry population, can affect the change rate of the revenue of Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile and Far EasTone. Long-term wise, the cumulative results show the convergence.
3. Using the variance decomposition forecast errors of the VAR model variance we also find out that the change rate of the revenue of Chunghwa Telecom, Taiwan Mobile and Far EasTone can be explained by internal factors (all greater than 60%), not by external factors. This reveals that the revenue’s change rate of the three Telecommunications Giants is something intrinsically.
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