An Analysis of Influential Factors for the Price of Newbuilding Bulk Vessel before and after the Financial Crisis

• Main Authors: Yu-Chen Liu, 劉雨珍
• Other Authors: Cheng-Chi Chung
• Format: Others
• Language: zh-TW
• Published: 2013
• Online Access: http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/55944606906567299776

碩士 === 國立臺灣海洋大學 === 航運管理學系 === 101 === 　　The shipping industry is capital-intensive and easily affected by global economic. Therefore, the operations and management in bulk shipping business is full of challenges. The difficulty in making purchasing decision is accelerated since market development and freight rate in bulk shipping have drastic fluctuations in recent years. As regards the prices of bulk vessel, the domestic and foreign pertinent researches mostly analyzed the secondhand vessel price, few investigated the influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price. Hence, this study aim to investigate the influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price, and explorethe impact of the financial crisis in 2008 with ADF unit root test, stepwise regression analysis and multiple regression analysis. This study adopts related variables of recent years(January 2005 to December 2012) from Clarkson Research, and analyzes the influencing factors ofnewbuilding vessel priceof Capesize, Panamax, Supramax and Handysizeseparately. The results demonstrate as follows: 1.　The influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price in 2005 to 2012 indicate thatBalticCapesize Index and the newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages are significant variables in Capesize sectors.The one-year period time charter hire and the growth rate ofLondon interbank offered rateare significant variables inPanamax sectors. The average price of secondhand vessel, newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages and growth rate ofLondon interbank offered rateare significant variables inSupramax sectors. The newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages and the global steel price indexare significant variables inHandysize sectors. 2.　The influencing factors of newbuilding vessel price during the financial crisis period in 2008 indicate following characteristics in bulk shipping market. The average price of secondhand vessel under five years old and the demolition of vessel deadweight tonnages are significant variables before the financial crisis. Then, the average price of secondhand vessel, newbuilding vessel deadweight tonnages and global crude steel production are significant variables after the financial crisis in Capesize sector. The demolition of vessel deadweight tonnages and the global crude steel production are significant variables before the financial crisis. Then, the global steel price index is the significant variable after the financial crisis in Panamax sector. The one-year period time charter hire, demolition of vessel deadweight tonnages and growth rate of London interbank offered rate are significant variables before the financial crisis. Then, the average price of secondhand vessel is significant variable after the financial crisis in Supramax sector. The global steel price index is significant variable before the financial crisis. Then, the price of Brent crude and the global steel price index are significant variables after the financial crisis in Handysize sector. 　　The findings in this research can be served as a good reference on decision making in vessel purchasing for bulk shipping corporations.