| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立中山大學 === 經濟學研究所 === 101 === In this paper, we employ Markov Switching Model in Summers（2009） to document a structural date in the volatility of Germany GDP growth. Moreover, we use a Time Varying Structural VAR with stochastic volatility model in Primiceri (2005) to examine the main causes of the Great Moderation in Germany. The break date, however, differs among countries. Most of them are in 1980s, but the break date of Germany is at the fourth quarter of 1993. Although it finds that the three main reasons lead to the Great Moderation(Good luck, inventory investment and good policy) in many literatures, it is the discretionary fiscal policy that causes the Great Moderation in Germany.
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