| Summary: | 碩士 === 國立屏東科技大學 === 農企業管理系所 === 101 === Natural rubber is a commodity that contributes to foreign exchange countries and has pretty good economic prospect for being able to survive during the economic crisis that hit Indonesia. In the context of development of world exports is seen that the world rubber exports had growth each year. This study examine the trend of rubber trade between Indonesia and the major importer countries such as United States and China, and the main competitor is Thailand as comparison. Analysing the relationship between short run and long run supply and demand of export and import Indonesian natural rubber and the response to the income changing in importer country. To answer the second objective cointegration approach, error correction model has used in this study. According to the result, the world's natural rubber exports in the last ten years in general tend to increase. The same thing also happened on the 3 quantity production of natural rubber. Dominant factor which influencing import demand of natural rubber in the USA is gross domestic product with the response which elastic, within short-run nor the long term with the speed from coefficients adjustment which relatively large. While the quantity of imports is not responsive to the changes in the real price of U.S. imports of natural rubber.
Import demand of natural rubber in China was not responsive toward relative price and gross domestic product in the short-run. Income elasticity is greater than price elasticity, this condition indicate that the impact in the income change will be greater than price import change.
Price elasticity of Indonesia's natural rubber exports greater than Thailand for the USA. market shows the dominance of Indonesia's natural rubber exports in the USA market. Meanwhile, Thailand's natural rubber export dominance is in the China market due to its elasticity greater than in Indonesia.
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